The 2009 draft was my first in the last 27 years that I was not working for a major league team as a northwest area scout or as a west coast or national crosschecker. With that history and experience—I offer a candid look at last June northwest draft of high school and college players. I was able to see as much or more of these players last spring as most Northwest area scouts and have for most a history with them as most are Baseball Northwest alumni. Overall I would consider this draft of northwest player as below average in ability as many previous years.
A draft cannot really be evaluated in terms of its effectiveness for any one major league team for about four to five years to see which players develop for actually contributors to the major league team. Scouting is not an exact science and a very difficult thing to do. I had a saying as I began to add up many years doing it—“there are no good scouts—just some are better than others.” It made one of the general managers I worked for mad but with experience and an objective look at it—I could not come to any other conclusion. The draft reflects how difficult this can be also. Many things go into a team deciding if and when in the draft to select a certain player. Many fans do not realize there is a big difference in some areas how certain teams approach scouting amateur players and as a result teams can have a wide difference of opinion on all players. One important aspect of this is the “signability” of a player—which means his interest in signing for the bonus money a certain club would offer. This can be a big factor for certain players as to where or even if they might be drafted. One thing is for sure—most of the successful teams do a better job than others of being productive in the draft. Enough on this for now—more at another time—let’s look at how the draft went from my perspective.
There were a few less players drafted because of the “no draft and follow situation.” Negotiations rights expired for players on August 17 under the new rules. Prior to the rule change—teams could keep the rights to a player if they were playing at a junior college.
Kyrell Hudson was not surprise to be the first northwest player selected. Many clubs backed off because of his high asking price (but he signed for less that half of what he ask for) and he did not play well in the spring and did not play with much passion. I was very disappointed in his development and approach to the game. Hopefully that will change in professional baseball. He signed late in the summer. Darrell Ceciliani in some ways came out of nowhere to emerge as the highest drafted junior college northwest player in a long time. Scouts did not have a lot of track record on him so to be drafted this high—shows his ability and how well he performed last spring. I missed seeing him his senior year at Madras high school in Oregon (yes same high school as Jacob Ellsbury) when I went to Madras to see some other players he was hurt and did not play. I was told about him by his coaches—I should have went back. Sometimes in scouting it can help to be lucky. Makes the old scouting saying so true “ a player can come from anywhere.” He is a talented player with a chance to hit, runs above average—will have to see if he develops enough power at the plate to move to a corner outfield spot or shows he can play centerfield well enough in professional baseball.
May Way did well in his first professional season at the lower levels but that is somewhat expected for a senior college left-handed pitcher drafted this high in the draft. Successful college senior pitches especially left-handers are over drafted because of being a senior—they don’t require as high a signing bonus. He had a great spring—he has a good feel for changing speeds which should advance him quickly in professional baseball. He was drafted the year before but elected to return for his senior year. He was drafted higher but likely did not receive much more in bonus money but was much better prepared to enter professional baseball.
Ryan Ortiz did not go as high as I expected him to. With the lack of catching prospects in professional baseball (many teams are converting infielders) and with his overall production and proven durability—he would not get out of the 4th round before being drafted. The only thing I could see was that he does not pull the ball with much power—so he may have a limited with his power production in the long run. The Rockies like sinker ball type pitchers so the drafting of Eric Stavert makes since—he really pitched well in the last half of the season for the Ducks. I thought he had pitched his way higher in the draft. Kyle Conley improved himself in the draft from last year being drafted after his second good season for the Huskies. He continued to hit well in pro ball his first year—has power potential—but is limited defensively. He was a junior last spring but was drafted the year before as a red-shirt sophomore because of age. Brian Pearl had the biggest upside as any college pitcher in last years northwest draft. He is a good athlete with a fresh arm (converted to pitcher after coming to U of W as an infielder.) But draft status may have been hurt by his being used in a double role (starting and closing last season). He settled in the bullpen well in his first season in professional baseball. Most scouts saw Tyson Van Winkle as a back up type catcher in the major leagues even with his offensive numbers being good at Gonzaga in his whole career. Not all offensive approaches or success in college work with the wood bat in professional baseball.
The drafting and eventually signing of Jake Locker may have been the best job of scouting in last year’s draft by the Angles but Jake’s football development this fall likely made him an NFL player—another tough loss for baseball to football. He is a great athlete, and a great person—those you root for to be successful in whatever he does. We at Baseball Northwest became big fans of his on and off the field so to speak when he played in the Northwest Championships as a junior.
I was alittle surprised Drew Gagnier was not signed by the A’s. It is always tough to draft college closers high unless there stuff is very good. He was a red-shirt sophomore so had two more years of eligibility left. I expect him to get many more save opportunities this spring for the Ducks and move much higher on draft boards. An injury to Blake Keitzman likely kept him from signing last summer. Jorge Reyes could have been drafted earlier but bonus demands caused him to fall to this point in the draft but he did end up signing late in the summer for around 5th round type money so turned out fine for him. Fellow Beaver Kraig Sitton who was a red-shirt sophomore made it know that he was not likely to sign but the Red Sox took a run at him anyway. Look for him to be a top round draft in 2010.
Tampa Bay area scout Paul Kirsh is known for his signing of northwest high school players later in the draft and may have gotten another “slepper” in left-handed pitcher Jacob Partridge who had a good start to his career at the rookie league. I could not understand why more scouts did not have interest in him. More and more clubs are shying away from signing high school players simply because a lot of area scouts have a hard time “projecting” the ability of a player or don’t do their job and find out the real “signability” of a player. It begins up a change in area scouting in the last few years that I call area scouts “cross checking” their own territory. The history of successful area scouts is they go see as many games as they can and let the players come to them but more and more area scouts just go see certain high school players they hear about or saw the summer before—so they are not really covering their area. Some area scouts don’t even see all the colleges in their area play in the spring. Cecillani, who we mentioned earlier would be an example of a player not seen that likely could have been drafted. Another example from last year was Mt Hood CC first basemen Taylor Ard who was putting up tremendous offensive numbers but many scouts were not aware of him until right toward the end of the spring. He definitely should have been drafted. He has a little unordothdox approach to hitting but squares balls up well in all parts of the srikee zone and has as much power as any northwest hitter last spring. . He is returning to Mt. Hood—it will be interesting to see how it works out this spring. Because many club’s cross check scouts don’t belief there area scouts—they won’t take a chance on a player that they don’t have a track record on or they wait until they go to a four year school and put up good offensive numbers—it gives them the safe way out. If hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports as the saying goes—evaluating hitters may be the second hardest thing to do. How can Albert Pujols go undrafted in high school and one year later be drafted later in the draft and then become the best hitter in the game? Two other players I was surprised was not drafted—Bryce Weidman, right-handed pitcher from North Bend, Or, (now attending Southwestern Oregon CC) and Matt Brown, infielder from Pennisula HS (Wa.) (now attending Central Arizona CC)
Back to looking at last years draft—as we get to later than the 20th round. College senior players begin to be drafted more and more because they don’t demand as much signing bonus. Also high school players that are difficult to sign begin being taken because teams can afford not to sign players in this part of the draft. James Robbins signed here just before the August 17th signing period when Detroit gave him top 5 round type money.
Another hard one to figure out was Tym Pearson from Thurston High School in Oregon. He is a tremendous athlete that just keep getting better and better after having not played baseball in high school until his junior year. There was more of an emphasis from some clubs on drafting more “athletic” type players in this draft. I see that as a good sign—teams had been getting away from that in the last few years. Tym had signed a letter of intent to play football at Portland State but made it know he was very interested in pro ball. The worst part of it was the Rockies never made any kind of legitimate offer to him. It may workout to his advantage—he is attending Columbia Basin CC and will likely improve himself in the draft a lot.
In looking toward the northwest 2010 draft—I consider at this point for it to be above average—the potential to be as good as one ever—we shall see—that is the fun part. One thing I have experienced over and over again—players develop at different rates and times—but players that really end up being players that succeed greatly after high school—whether in college or professional baseball make a big jump in improvement between their junior and senior years in high school.
2009 MLB DRAFT NORTHWEST OVERVIEW
58 players were drafted in the June Major League draft of college and high school players with northwest connections—either played in 2009 in a northwest college or high school or played in college outside the northwest but played in high school in northwest prior. Below is listed the round, number of selection, player, selecting team, position, bats and throws, height and weight, and school. * indicates the 36 Baseball Northwest alumni. If player did not sign—where he is playing now is indicated.
3rd
Phillies #103 Kyrell Hudson* OF R/R 6’1 185 Evergreen HS
SIGNED
4TH
Mets #134 Darrell Ceciliani OF L/L 6’0 185 Columbia Basin CC
SIGNED
Phillies #167 Matthew Way LHP L/L 6’2 200 Washington State
SIGNED
6th
A’s #183 Ryan Ortiz C R/R 6’3 205 Oregon State
SIGNED
7th
Rockies #211 Eric Stavert RHP R/R 6’2 185 Univ. of Oregon
SIGNED
Cardinals #211 Kyle Conley OF R/R 6’4 215 Univ. of Washington
SIGNED
Blue Jays #220 Egan Smith LHP L/L 6’5 200 College of Southern Idaho
SIGNED
8th
Rangers #244 Braden Tullis RHP R/R 6’2 200 Skagit Valley CC
SIGNED
9th
Reds #269 Brian Pearl* RHP R/R 6’1 190 Univ. of Washington
SIGNED
10th
D’backs #306 Tyson Van Winkle* C R/R 6’0 185 Gonzaga Univ.
SIGNED
Angels #321 Jake Locker* OF R/R 6’3 225 Univ. of Washington
SIGNED.
11th
Cleveland #335 Kirk Wetmore* LHP L/L 6’2 205 Bellevue CC
SIGNED
13th
Cleveland #395 Jeremy Johnson* RHP R/R 5’11 185 Washington State
SIGNED
Marlins #398 Tyler Curtis RHP R/R 6’3 230 College of Southern Idaho
DID NOT SIGN
Brewers #406 Sean Halton OF R/R 6’5 245 Lewis and Clark State
SIGNED
14th
A’s #423 Drew Gagnier RHP R/R 6’4 225 Univ. of Oregon
DID NOT SIGN. RETURNED TO UNIVERSITY OF OREGON
15th
A’s #443 Blake Keitzman* LHP L/L 6’0 185 Western Oregon
DID NOT SIGNED. RETURNED TO WESTERN OREGON UNIV.
17th
Padres #504 Jorge Reyes RHP R/R 6’3 195 Oregon State
SIGNED.
Dodgers #517 Steve Ames* RHP R/R 6’0 205 Gonzaga
SIGNED.
Red Sox #528 Kraig Sitton* LHP L/L 6’5 190 Oregon State
DID NOT SIGN. RETURN TO OSU
18th
Rays #559 Jacob Partridge* LHP L/L 6’3 185 Rogers HS
SIGNED
20th
Mets #614 Joey August* OF L/L 6’1 200 Stanford Univ.
SIGNED
22nd
Blue Jays #670 Matthew Fields RHP R/R 6’3 190 Gonzaga Univ.
SIGNED
23rd
Marlins #698 Thomas Peale RHP R/R 6’3 225 Lewis and Clark
SIGNED
24th
Pirates #715 Jason Erickson* RHP R/R 6’0 195 Univ. of Washington
SIGNED
Giants #717 Alex Burg* C R/R 6’0 190 Washington State
SIGNED
Rockies #721 Joey Wong* SS L/R 5’10 175 Oregon State
SIGNED
A’s #723 Dan Straily RHP R/R 6’2 230 Marshall Univ.
SIGNED
25th
Twins #762 Tony Bryant* RHP R/R 6’7 210 Kennewick HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING OREGON STATE
Rays #769 Ryan Wiegland 1B L/L 6’4 225 Gonzaga Univ.
SIGNED
27th
Blue Jays #820 Brian Justice* RHP R/R 6’2 190 St. Mary’s Univ.
SIGNED
Marlins #818 Nate Simon* 2B L/R 6’0 180 Pepperdine Univ.
SIGNED
28th
Royals #842 Eric Peterson* SS L/R 6’3 195 Liberty HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING UNIV. OF WASHINGTON
Rays #859 Zach Rosscup* LHP L/L 6’2 205 Chemeketa CC
SIGNED
29th
Reds #869 Jason Braun* RHP R/R 6’5 185 Corban College
SIGNED
Angels #891 William Nicholls RHP R/R 6’2 180 College of Southern Idaho
SIGNED
30th
Tigers #900 James Robbins* 1B L/L 6’0 225 Shorecrest HS
SIGNED.
32nd
Rays #979 Alex Besaw* RHP R/R 6’3 220 Skagit Valley CC
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING CENTRAL FLORIDA UNIV.
Mariners #953 Bennett Whitmore LHP L/L 6’3 230 Univ. of Oregon
SIGNED
Astros #971 Greg Peavy* RHP R/R 6’1 185 Oregon State
DID NOT SIGN. RETURNED TO OSU
34th
Rangers #1024 Jared Prince OF R/R 6’2 210 Washington State
SIGNED
35th
Reds #1039 Forrest Cannon* RHP R/R 6’3 190 UC Santa Barbara
SIGNED
Padres #1044 Alberto Santos OF R/R 5’10 185 Oregon State
DID NOT SIGN. RETURNED TO OSU
Rockies #1051 Tym Pearson* OF R/R 6’2 205 Thurston HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING COLUMBIA BASIN CC
Royals #1052 Levi Cartas OF R/R 6’3 175 Marysville-Pilchuck HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING EVERETT CC
D’backs #1056 Zachary Morgan* RHP R/R 6’2 165 Shasta CC
DID NOT SIGN. RETURNED TO SHASTA CC
38th
Pirates #1135 Jacob Lamb* INF L/R 6’3 195 Bishop Blanchet HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING UNIV. OF WASHINGTON
Giants #1137 AJ Proszek RHP R/R 6’3 230 Gonzaga Univ.
SIGNED
39th
Reds #1190 Nic Struck* RHP R/R 5’11 185 Mt Hood CC
SIGNED
40th
Mariners #1193 Jorden Merry* RHP R/R 6’1 190 Univ. of Washington
SIGNED
Reds #1199 Michael Robertson* OF R/R 6’2 190 Bellevue CC
SIGNED
41st
Rays #1249 Matt Stablefield LHP L/L 5’10 190 Lewis-Clark State
SIGNED
42nd
Mariners #1253 Stephen Hagen* 3B R/R 6’2 190 Eastern Oklahoma St.JC
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING.TEXAS TECH
D’backs #1268 Zach Hendrix* C R/R 5’11 185 Emerald Ridge HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING WEST POINT
Marlins #1267 Jordan Poyer OF R/R 6’1 180 Astoria HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING OREGON STATE
43rd
Orioles #1286 Brad Decatur* INF R/R 6’2 180 Questa CC
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
45th
Rangers #1354 Dale Anderson C R/R 6’0 215 College of Southern Idaho
DID NOT SIGN. RETURNED TO COLLEGE OF SOUTHERN IDAHO
46th
Phillies #1397 Jeff Ames* RHP R/R 6’4 185 Skyview HS
DID NOT SIGN. ATTENDING LOWER COLUMBIA CC
48th
Angels #1461 Jake Rife* OF L/L 5’11 205 Univ. of Washington
SIGNED
SIGNED AFTER THE DRAFT
Giants Jacob Dunnington* HP R/R Shelton HS